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Samsung Galaxy S4 Sales Relvised 30% Down by Analysts โญโญโญโญ ๐Ÿ”ด๐Ÿ”ด๐Ÿ”ด

June 17, 2013

Samsung Galaxy S4 Sales Relvised 30% Down by Analysts after prematurly “crowning” Samsung as the new “Cool Device.” Analysts are now rethinking all their math. The difference was that Apple actually SOLD 5 million iPhones in its first Three Day Weekend across the 9 launch-countries. Samsung’s larger figure related to Carrier SHIPMENTS, not end user Sales. Not to mention that those figures included shipments (not sales) to 60 launch countries, including Korea, China and India; however, these three major markets Apple did not offer its iPhone5 in its initial launch weekend. Not exactly an Apples to Apples comparison, pardon the pun.

๐ŸŽ vs ๐ŸŠ Reuters, was comparing Apples to Sour Oranges, and incorrectly reported that Samsung actually Sold 10 million phones in its first month. Analysts caught up in the hysteria of the S4 launch, initially predicted blockbuster Sales of the Galaxy S4, and continued momentum of its Sales. These Analysts looking at Activation figures for confirmation, are now doing some Very High-Speed Back-Pedaling as actual sales and activation data becomes available.

๐ŸŠ The report by Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Bang, cited analysts as pointing to “lacklustre prospects in Europe and Samsung’s home territory of South Korea in particular,” adding that “the S4, in reality, also lacks any real wow-factor.” Michael Bang also cited “The Street, including Goldman Sachs, admittedly extrapolated the first-quarter earnings momentum through the year” {using shhipments rather than sales figures}. By using the incorrect figures, resulted in overly optimistic earnings expectations.

๐ŸŠ Sales estimates by Bank of America – Merrill Lynch, have been cut by 5 million throughout 2013. However, Reuters noted that “most Analysts have reduced their estimates for S4 Shipments to around 7 million units a month from their previous average expectation of 10 million.” That represents a 30% drop in the Shipments…

๐ŸŠ There is an important difference between Shipments and actual Sales, and Activations. Just how many Galaxy S4 are in Boxes sitting on retailer’s shelves… If we are guessing… as Samsung is remaining silent on the topic, there could be 15% to 20% inventory of Galaxy S4 smart phones that is not sold in Boxes, in Warehouses, in Backrooms at Retail Stores, and in Carrier Showrooms.

๐ŸŽ Apple, in contrast actually SOLD 37,400,000 iPhones in the most recent Q2 ending in March 30, 2013, beating Wall Street’s institutional Analyst’s consensus of 35.6 million. Apple keeps “out of the weeds” by only publishing “Reality.” Actual paid Sales to Customers, Figures they can prove, Figures that may be matched by Actuations reported by the Carriers.

๐ŸŠ Samsung has been trying to prop-up sales of the S4 by experimenting with a flurry of models sporting smaller screens, larger screens, ruggedized coatings and an improved camera.

๐ŸŠ The S4 is also accompanied by the Note phablet series and flanked by a wide range of low-end models, many of which still run very outdated versions of Android. The more models Samsung produces, however, the more work it will assume in optimizing its designs and support across all of those produces. “I don’t think there’ll be as much buzz surrounding new product launches as it used to be.”

๐ŸŠ Samsung warned analysts earlier in 2013, that it knew that Sales in the Smartphone market were drying up for Samsung, and that competition, basically Apple, was getting very tight, (tight is Code-Word for very Tough looking forward). If Apple rumors continue for 4.7″ and 5.7″ iPhone displays, “tight” will become even “tighter.”

๐ŸŽ Looking at the Apple’s Historical Quarterly Sales from 2007, it is not too difficult to imagine Apple selling 50 to 60 Million iPhones per quarter in 2014/2015 time-frame. The Upward Slope of the Green Line is fairly steep in the right direction โ†—

๐ŸŽ Apple has been focused, like a Laser-beam, entirely at the high-end of the Smart Phone market, by only offering One Flagship model, in Sept, 2012 the iPhone 5, and selling the previous years’ models, the iPhone 4 and 4S, as its entry-level (lower cost) options for first-time iPhone buyers.

๐ŸŽ Apple positioned itself in a similar fashion, when Apple Sold only one version of the iPod, just prior to releasing the iPod-mini and iPod-nano models. This Retail step-up strategy rapidly consumed the lower-end of the MP3 market.

๐ŸŽ Apple therfore, is widely expected to release a new lower-priced iPhone model this year, 2013, aimed directly at Capturing the middle-tier of SmartPhone sales. This is very important IMHO, as a $99 iPhone will give budget-minded folks, that would really like to join the Apple ecosystem, a less expensive point of entry. Also as iPad mini and iPads generally sales increase, to customers that are joining Apple for the first time, as did we in in April, 2010, adoption of the iPhone is a very realistic expectation; This product Apple migration was exactly the Path that Marilyn took in July, 2010, a few monthsl of using the iPads, and we bought two iPhone 4, and now iPhone 5, and Marilyn changed to a fully loaded iPad-mini, giving her iPad to #3 Son. Connecting more Dots…

๐ŸŽ iPhone 6 with a 5.7" Display – Apple Working its Supply-Line Formulating a Plan. Citing four sources, Reuters reports that Apple has delivered detailed plans for a 4.7" and a 5.7" iPhones to suppliers in Asia, presumably to produce beta samples for Apple to test internally. If Apple does follow through with these plans, this would be a change in Apple’s position on larger iPhones. We all know Apple says Nothing, and releases nothing, no specs, no images, no hints, nothing until Apple is Ready to deliver.

๐ŸŽ Once Apple delivered the iPad-mini, contrary to Apple’s absurd position that Only the 9.7" display was optimal for finger gestures, all other sizes are inappropriate. Clearly, having a 7.9" iPad-mini is very appropriate, and is probably out-selling the traditional iPad by a margin of say 3-to-2, three ipad-mini sales for every standard sized iPad. Knowing the history of the iPods, mini, nano, you name the flavors, its pretty easy to "Connect the Dots" that eventually the iPhone may have two or three footprints, particularly with the out-cry from Apple users who are Complaining to Apple sales associates in Apple retail stores, all over the world, self included.

๐ŸŽ Apple’s significant new redesign of iOS 7 will also force Samsung to either come up with its own parallel Android refresh, or end up looking dated with a variety of features and app designs and its an overall appearance taken directly from previous versions of Apple’s iOS.


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2 Comments
  1. The S4 is also accompanied by the Note phablet series and flanked by a wide range of low-end models, many of which still run very outdated versions of Android. The more models Samsung produces, however, the more work it will assume in optimizing its designs and support across all of those produces. โ€œI donโ€™t think thereโ€™ll be as much buzz surrounding new product launches as it used to be.

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