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Tropical Storm Chantal Heading to South Florida with landfall predicted Friday Morning at 8am (11AM Thursday Update) ๐ŸŒ€๐ŸŒ€๐ŸŒ€๐ŸŒ€๐ŸŒ€๐ŸŒ€๐ŸŒ€

July 11, 2013

Tropical Storm Chantal Heading to South Florida with landfall predicted Friday Morning at 8am

UPDATE: FROM THE NHC IN MIAMIโ€ฆ11:00 A.M. EDT: WTNT43 KNHC 101502

As of the 8:00 a.m. Intermediate Advisory from the NHC, the following information was posted on Tropical Storm Chantal:

8:00 AM EDT Thurs Jul 11
Location: 16.5ยฐN 70.8ยฐW
Moving: W at 29 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb/ 29.85 in
Max sustained: 45 mph

In looking at the RADAR Loops this morning, there does not seem to be any discernible rotation of the Storm, therefore intensification is limited as to sustained wind speed. The storm system is moving at 25 knots which is quite rapid, almost twice the speed of storms brewing in this region. This high speed helps to prevent the storm bubbling up into a more dangerous system.

We are currently waiting on information from the reconnaissance aircraft as to whether or not Chantal has degenerated into an open wave. Most of the satellite loop images tend to indicate this. However, SWIR tends to indicate, although with a system moving this quick, satellite loops can be deceiving, a possible center trying to reform about 1.0 degree south. Albeit with such unfavorable conditions, this scenario may not be likely, but it appears to maybe be supported by the 850 MB vorticity map.

As stated about quick changes, the forecast has changed pretty much 180ยฐ. Based on current forecast track, and the latest Zonal Wind Shear update from the GFS, Chantal has apparently missed her window of opportunity for further development.

The current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates westerly shear on the order of 25 knots. Given this, and the current forward speed of Chantal, convection is being pushed away from the storm. Another factor with the quick forward movement, is this is not allowing for good surface convergence. Let me just touch on wind shearโ€ฆwhen a system encounters this type of wind shear, not only does it blow thunderstorms away from the system, it โ€œtiltsโ€ the system, in this case from west to east. This allows for the latent heat released by the storm, to become more spread out, vice being able to focus in a small area in a vertical column, which does not promote organization. A storm must be able to focus itโ€™s latent heat energy pretty much vertically up through the mid layers of the atmosphere.

Based on these current factors, and upcoming land interaction (i.e. mountainous terrain), Chantal should meet her demise within the next 24 hours, if not sooner. Regardless of any possible center reformation, Chantal will undergo a hostile environment for at least the next 96 hours based on the wind shear forecast.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Another fairly moderate change is forecast track this morning. The official track, along with the model guidance has shifted left (west). Analysis of current steering and various satellite loop imagery indicate the subtropical ridge has shifted more toward the west, thereby affecting the track. Based on analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps, and current steering conditions, I have to concur with the NHC forecast track, albeit I would not rule out another slight shift westward, until we can see what becomes of Chantal over the next couple of hours.

Based on the forecast track, the NHC forecast intensity may not be too far fetched as what may be left possibly enters the Bahamas, as there will be a very brief period of a substantial drop in wind shear, and could allow the 40 mph Tropical Storm status..albeit it would be extremely brief.

So, before anything becomes conclusive, I want to see what happens throughout the day, and Iโ€™ll update sometime this evening.

Elsewhere, albeit the GFS no longer indicates development in the EATL in a few days, I am going to continue to monitor an area of disturbed weather just to the SSW of the Cape Verde Islands. Conditions at the moment that far east are only marginal at the moment, however the orientation of the ridge at that location, may push this somewhat south, and as this moves to the west, could encounter minimal easterly shear values, which could allow for some slow organization over the next 4-5 days.

EUMETSAT IMAGERY

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 AM EDT THUR JUL 11 2013

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAD A
CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS MORNING (THURSDAY, 7/11/2013)…THANKS TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL…

WE WERE ABLE TO LOCATE ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL…ALONG WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS…OR
PERHAPS MUCH EARLIER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER DEFINITION
IS POOR. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER…
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH MOVES EASTWARD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS DURING THE 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 16.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 18.1N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 20.0N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 22.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 30.0N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z…DISSIPATED

Good day everyone!

T. F. โ€œSTORMโ€ WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

In looking at the RADAR loops today, this tropical storm has not gained much rotational organization. Accordingly predicting wind-speed is not very reliable at this time. Presently, the National Weather Service is not predicting Hurricane Strength winds on Friday’s Dade County landfall. However, there will be lots of Rain and Wind for 24-36 hours.


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