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Apple and Management are Facing Pressure from Every Direction, as do all Winning Teams ๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ๐ŸŽ ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿ˜Ž๐ŸŒ๐Ÿ˜Ž

August 9, 2013

๐ŸŽ Apple and Management are Facing Pressure from Every Direction, as do all Winning Teams. Lets face it, Apple turned the crowded Smart Phone market upside-down when it entered with its iPhone in 2007, where we are now some 390 million iPhones later. Simarily, Apple turned the crowded Tablet market upside-down when it entered with its iPad in 2010, where we are now some 140 million iPads later.

๐ŸŽ Combine the stir from the critics with the simple fact that there are millions of shareholders holding some 950 million shares outstanding. Accordingly, there are plenty of folks "interested" in how Apple performs Product Wise, Execution Wise, Share Price Wise. With the share price crossing $700/share October, 2012, and presently trading around $450/share, some 35% lower than its $700 high-point, the Investors are very interested in seeing their shares appreciate from the current levels, and become agitated with bad press.

According to Fox Business Network’s Charlie Gasparino, sources tell him, from what we understand, there is concern at the board level, about the pace of innovation over at Apple. Charlie Gasparino said, What have they had lately [new products] ? They had the iPad and a few other things, but they don’t have anything innovating from what came from Steve Jobs and that concern is basically manifesting into pressure on Tim Cook to innovate, and to do something fast.

๐ŸŽ Statistics Tell Stories. From a historical perspective, Apple is doing great. After all, everyone should be pleased having a product, in a little over three years, has sold a whopping 155 million iPads. Before the iPad, in 2007 Apple ushered in a groundbreaking smartphone design, and sold 388 million iPhones in six years.

๐ŸŽ Statistics Tell Stories. But as the iPad and iPhone charts show, while the overall sales trend is inexorably up for both iPad and iPhone, the sharp plunge both these platforms have experienced in the past two quarters is unprecedented, even accounting for the seasonality.

๐ŸŽ Statistics Tell Stories. One could apply a mathematical, internal rate of return on these data points in attempt to determine what may be the future. However before we create these "projections" lets look at the raw data. If you were to look at only the last 3 data points, 22.9, 19.5, 14.6, million iPads per Quarter, a panicky Wall Street Analyst, Apple manager or Board Member may deduce that the next quarterly iPad sales may be even worse say 10 million iPads…

Looking at the iPhone chart, If you were to look at only the last 3 data points, 47.8, 37.4, 31.2, million iPhones per Quarter, a panicky Wall Street Analyst, Apple manager or Board Member may deduce that the next quarterly iPhones sales may be even worse say 25 million iPhones.

๐ŸŽ Statistics Tell Stories. Instead of apply mathematical, internal rate of return modeling on these data points in attempt to determine what may be the future, lets draw some pictures, and set the pitch of the Green Line to demonstrate the averages of the data-points, with respect to the quarterly periods.

Not only does this method save a lot number-crunching, the visual tells the story to any reasonable audience. Therefore instead of looking-back just 3 data points, the Slope of the Line contemplates the sales over years, rather than just 6 months.

๐ŸŽ Statistics Tell Stories. True Facts Tell, but Stories Sell. In my examination of the charts, consideration has to be given to the market place. For example, as a Competitor released an amazing New Competing Product, that may erode iPhone’s sales prospects for the future.

In the case of the iPhone, the answer is no. Actually a Big no, as the iPhone 5 is outselling Samsung’s new Galaxy S4, and the iPhone 4S is also outselling the new Galaxy product. Likewise, there are no new exciting competing products for the iPad. This would lead one to believe, the current sales levels are new to Apple. The folks that have iPhones and iPads are using their devices and those that want to upgrade to a newer model, are waiting for the New Releases, self included.

๐ŸŽ Statistics Tell Stories. In consideration of the notes mentioned above, the two charts have been Overlaid with Green Bars, to reasonably take into account the product’s historical growth and penetration, in attempt to forecasting where the Average of the next few data-points may fall on the graph. If new products are released in the next two quarters, it is very likely the data-points will "spike" upwards, from the last data-point reflecting the 2nd Quarter’s results.

FOX Business Channel.
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2594063324001/apple-board-concerned-about-the-pace-of-innovation/


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5 Comments
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