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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Trump Polling Anomaly πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ

August 5, 2015

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Current Polling of the Presidential Candidates may be more indicative of the level of TV and Print coverage than one’s true preference when voting. Briefly, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are receiving almost all of the current Media Coverage, and accordingly they are receiving higher and increasing polling results.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Hillary Clinton however, the current news is unfavorable regarding her destroying information that was Subpoenaed by Congress, and now a DC Judge is threatening judicial action for the non-delivery of information and the insecure home-brew server.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Trump Anomaly. What is causing the apparent “surge” in the polling for Donald Trump, and what do these number mean? For the Republican candidates the Donald is a “Media Sensation” because of his brash and insulting remarks. Trump is very effectively manipulating the media. Every Day Trump develops another annoying or prejudicial remark and the media follows Trump wherever he goes… So it should be no surprise that current polling reflects increasing polling results for Trump.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Trump currently holds 23.2% of the Republican Polling Preferences as of August 3, 2015 according to the Real Clear Politics {RCP} average of the most recent 5 National Polls. Looking at the RCP statistics, if Trump holds 23% favorable, then 77% are not supporting Trump. Importantly, it is not a surprise that remaining 15 republican candidates cannot garner a significant percentage. Simply dividing the remaining 77% by 15 yields an average of about 5%. If one factors in the +3%|-3% sampling Margin of Error, (MOE) the “statistical average” is similar to 8%, adding in the sampling margin of error.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ What does the Margin of Error really mean. Lets look at the NBC/WSJ polling through 7/30, TRUMP leads with 19%, Walker at 15% and Bush at 14%. If one applies the MOE to these statistics, Trump could be 19%-3%=16%, Walker at 15%+3%=18%, and Bush at 14%+3%=17%. Therefore, anyone familiar with interpreting statistics that involve a sampling margin of error, these 3 Candidates are all Statistically Tied.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The Media is looking for Startling Headlines, so they run the story “Trump is Surging.” IMHO the Media is creating the TRUMP statistics, as that’s what they want to cover.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Here’s what I think about the Trump Factor. Twenty Percent of the voters are angry and what the politicians out. Trump is appealing to this sentiment and is garnering their poll call. Add to this factor that the Media is almost exclusively covering Trump, which is creating a “self fulfilling prophecy”.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Media Coverage of Presidential Candidates. When the media covers the another Presidential candidates, the Media interviewers are asking what they think about Trump and his bombastic remarks, rather than what these Candidates think about their issue positions. Eventually, the Media will calm themselves, as Trump’s stats will eventually plateau.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ What do You Think ?

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Real Clear Politics on-line publishes the most current Polling Preferences for all Presidential Candidates, past and present, with an excellent and comprehensive archive of data.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html#polls

β˜… FOX News Methodology: (For Example) All results are for release after 6:00 P.M. ET Monday, August 3, 2015. The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers July 30-August 2, 2015 among a random national sample of 1,306 registered voters (RV).

β˜… FOX Polling Results is based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of +/-3% {plus or minus three percentage points}. Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state.
Results are of registered voters, unless otherwise noted.



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