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★ TRUMP & FIORINA may have Peaked ★ Their Polls are Dropping ★

October 5, 2015

🔴 IBD/TIPP latest October 1st, 2015 POLL shows TRUMP in 2nd, which is 7% behind Ben Carson, outside the ±5% MOE, margin of error. Donald Trump has continuously boasted that he’s “leading every poll and in most cases BIG.” Not anymore!

🔴 Nationwide IBD/TIPP October 1st survey found that 24% of Republican Primary Voters are backing Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump. Marco Rubio came in 3rd with 11%. RUBIO’s polling results are particularly good news, as he has been steadily climbing in recent polling, with reported excellent performances in the last 2 Presidential Debates, the 1st moderated by FOX, and the 2nd moderated by CNN.

🔴 Real Clear Politics publishes comprehensive polling results onto their website (http://goo.gl/0OWZge) that lists all recent National and State Polling results. The graphic below displays the polls through October 5th, 2015.

🔴 Real Clear Politics graphical presentation of the recent National Polls is displayed below. Notice that this chart has been trimmed to show only the TOP 7 Presidential Candidates. However, to see their entire panel of candidates click onto this Link: http://goo.gl/0OWZge

🔴 Rubio is Polling Nationally in 3rd place at 11%, and Carly Fiorina 4th place at 9%. Jeb Bush, months ago was considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked in 5th place with only 8% support. Those who say they remain “Undecided” rests at 9%. As time progresses, the Undecideds will decrease, and the Leaders will be more defined as the unpopular Candidates drop out of contention.

🔴 With the current Crowded Field of Republican Presidential hopefuls, it is difficult for candidates to mount large statistical leads. However, Trump apparently has accumulated true supporters plus the “anti-establishment” crowd which is currently Shrinking with Time.

🔴 IBD/TIPP Poll has an established proven track-record for Best Polling Accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate.

🔴 New York Times has also concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 Polling Organizations for the three weeks immediately preceding the 2012 elections.

🔴 Rubio is among the Highest Group for the Combination of 1st Choice plus 2nd Choice. An interesting Read of the Polling Results. One measure of the polling data is to look deeper into the polling results, to see which Candidates have been selected 1st Choice Pick, and which candidate is their 2nd Choice. If you Add the Candidate’s 1st choice picks with their 2nd Choice picks, TRUMP falls to deeply into the Crowd, as few select Trump as their 2nd choice candidate.

🔴 IBD/TIPP’s current scientific poll of October 1st, 2015 POLL, conducted for the period from Sept. 26 to Oct. 1, included 377 registered voters who are Republican or Registered Independents, who lean toward the Republican Party, with a margin of error of ±5% points, also referred to as a MOE of ±5%.

🔴 Understanding Polling Results, and using a MOE of ±5%. Since Carly Fiorina is currently at 9% and Jeb Bush is polling at 8%, they are within the ±5% MOE and are considered to be “Statistically Tied” although the Networks hardly ever mention who are statistically tied. Further since, Carson is 7% higher than Trump, Carson is clearly higher in the Polls because their polling results differ by an amount greater than the Poll’s declared MOE of ±5%.

🔴 Polling Organizations declare their poll’s margin of error, along with the Polling Data. Generally speaking, the greater the number of participants in the polling data, the lower the margin of error. The scrutiny applied to selecting the participants, their geography, and previous voting trends, help to reduce the margin of error.

🔴 Understanding and Interpreting Polling Data is a very complex topic. True scientific polling requires careful selection of the participants, their voting experience, age grouping, geography, political preferences, etc. This Link provides to you the methodology and other matters regarding PEW Research Polling. http://goo.gl/AMR2yz

🔴 Has TRUMP Peaked? Other polls show Trump’s support slipping in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of six national polls shows him falling 7.2% from 30.5% to 23.3% during the last half of September. That average does not include the IBD/TIPP findings, which would bring the figures down a bit further.

🔴 “Things appear to be catching up with Trump on multiple fronts,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts IBD’s monthly poll. “In addition to facing increasing attacks from other candidates, Trump’s boycott of Fox News may have set him back,” Mayur said, noting that the poll was being conducted during Trump’s self-imposed hiatus. Think about all the Free-Press FOX News was unfairly giving TRUMP.

🔴 TRUMP was asked on CNBC recently about Donald’s slipping poll numbers… Trump said that “if I fell behind badly, and the media stopped inviting me to appear… I would certainly get out.” Carson’s gain comes after his controversial remarks on “Meet the Press” that he couldn’t support a Muslim for president. Rubio’s third-place standing shows he has gained considerable ground since the second GOP debate. But Fiorina, who was widely seen as having won the CNN debate, has been unable to capitalize on the media’s view of the Debate with Republican Primary Voters.

🔴 Marco Rubio has overtaken Donald Trump and secured second place for the first time in USA TODAY’s weekly GOP Power Rankings. Each week ask about 30 political experts from around the country who they think is the strongest candidate in the Republican field. Trump dominated in the first weeks of our survey. But last week, after a strong debate performance, Carly Fiorina knocked Trump from first place,

🔴 USA TODAY’s weekly GOP Power Rankings. Each week USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings asks 30 Political Experts from around the Country who these 30 Experts think is the strongest candidate in the Republican field. Trump dominated First Place for the first 3 weeks of their surveys.

🔴 This week RUBIO knocked out TRUMP out of Donald’s second place seat, based in part on RUBIO’s good post-debate performances with the Media and his Campaigning, and the fading of several other candidates. However, in the previous week (week 4) after a strong CNN debate performance, Carly Fiorina knocked Trump from first place held (Week 3). Click onto this Link to see the Current Week’s Results, as each Week this USA TODAY’s weekly GOP Power Rankings is updated. http://goo.gl/DHl1n6

🔴 USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings • Updated Weekly http://goo.gl/DHl1n6



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