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πŸ”΄ Republican Primary Races β€’ Who is Rising β€’ Who is Falling β€’ Carson Surges Over Trump β€’ October 27th Update πŸ”΄

October 27, 2015

πŸ”΄ Ben CARSON has Overtaken Donald Trump for the first time in USA TODAY’s GOP Power Rankings, that deemed CARSON the strongest candidate in the Republican field this week, by its panel of political 30 experts. Carson’s rise in the GOP Power Rankings rankings reflects the 4 recent Iowa Polls and 1 National Poll, showing Carson passing Trump in the critical first-in-the-nation Hawkeye State.

πŸ”΄ Carson’s surge over Trump in Iowa polling is β€œa huge shift and may mark the end of the Donald,” said HeadCount’s Aaron Ghitelman, perhaps too soon to know. But Ghitelman warns: β€œPeople in this Poll have considered every flap of a bird’s wing in Iowa or New Hampshire, to signify the end of Trump, and we’ve been wrong every time.”

πŸ”΄ Trump’s popularity and polling may be forming a Poll-Ceiling, as we’ve mentioned for the last 3 weeks. This week’s polling data is showing a possible polling-peak. Plus, knowing that Trump is very uncomfortable being 2nd at anything, he may effectively self-destruct, and eventually exit the campaign. Recall that several weeks ago Trump was polling at 34%, however now currently in the Low 20 percentile.

πŸ”΄ Trump’s blustering that “I’m ahead in all the polls may have to be stricken from his talking points, having scored 2nd place in the last 5 polls, as he turns his attacks to Carson. This strong negativity may further erode his support.

πŸ”΄ β€œCarson emerges as the candidate to beat in Iowa” are views widely shared by GOP POWER RANKING’s 32 experts. If he wins there, he gets his ticket stamped for the final round,” said University of New Hampshire professor Dante Scala. And he is clearly looking strong there. β€œCarson’s strong campaign team continued to pull in more support for him especially in Iowa.

πŸ”΄ Trump continues to have a love/hate relationship with People, Women, Latinos, Media, and Republican Rivals” says many shocked observers including Kansas activist Deb Lucia.

β€œπŸ”΄ Dr. Carson goes on a Book Tour and moves into first place in 3 recent Iowa polls,” said Podesta Group’s Paul Brathwaite. Meanwhile, β€œGov. Bush recalibrates to save his campaign.” Despite Jeb Bush’s troubles, he announced last week that BUSH is downsizing his campaign staff to conserve funds. BUSH did not drop in GOP Rankings, in part because he remains bunched in a second tier where nobody has made any significant upward movement.

πŸ”΄ GOP POWER RANKING experts show the GOP race is still very Volatile. Last week, Trump received 21 first-place GOP Ranking votes and appeared to be in command of the race. This week, there is a totally different story as Trump only received eight 1st place votes, his lowest total 1st place rankings since it began the Power Rankings in early September.

πŸ”΄ Carson jumped this week to 13 First-Place votes, from only 3 last week. This may signal a break in Trump’s national rankings, solidifying the notion of a Trump Poll-Ceiling. The remainder of the first-place votes went to Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who continue to hover in the top tier of the GOP Rankings.

πŸ”΄ USA TODAY’s GOP Power Rankings is published Tuesday mornings generally before 11am weekly. There are some 32 professional political analysts, academics, and pollsters that meet meet each week and cast their Votes for 1st, 2nd, 3rd… place holders for the GOP Republican Candidates. This is very dis-similar to Real Clear Politics’ summary of the Poll Results for all the actual Major Polling organizations. The thirty two GOP Power Ranking participants review the polling data, assess the press events of the week, and consider the major Media coverage for the candidates. To view the current GOP Power Rankings go to this Link: http://onpolitics.usatoday.com

πŸ”΄ This is the Link to Real Clear Politics publication of the current polling data: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

πŸ”΄ USA TODAY’s GOP Power Rankings is published Tuesday mornings. There are some 32 professional political analysts, University Professors, former Republican candidates, former Republican National Committee executives and Pollsters as listed below:

Address for Monmouth University’s Current Poll: http://goo.gl/QzWEi2

Address for all Monmouth University’s Poll Reportshttp://www.monmouth.edu/university/monmouth-university-poll-reports.aspx

Rudy Giuliani was the Leader in all Polls every week for many months in 2008, then crashed as the first State Primaries began. This bit of history is brought into focus, as the MEDIA is desperate to declare a winner with TRUMP. Unfortunately, with this weeks polls CARSON is leading in three Polls for the IOWA straw poll.

Ben Carson has surpassed Donald Trump, as Carson now Leads the Republican field in a National Poll for the race for the nomination in the latest CBS News/New York Times National Poll with 26% of Republican primary voters back Carson, giving him a 4% edge over Trump (22%). Support for Carson has quadrupled since August.

Name Recognition likely supersedes Policy considerations, due to the huge number of candidates that are on the ballot, when the pollsters read all the names in their preference polling. Several Weeks ago (see below) we reported that in a Heat-To-Head Poll, RUBIO beats TRUMP by a wide margin, as did CARSON, not so for BUSH, who lost to Trump. We believe that the excitement about Trump is tarnishing as he continues to criticize his opponents; this blustering may be entertaining for a while, but wears thin by many. We believe, this trend represents the beginning of a Poll-Ceiling for Trump. With two more Republican Debates coming this week and next week, CNN followed by FOX’s debate, by mid-November the Polling numbers will surely change.

Rudy Giuliani’s 2008 presidential campaign began following the formation of the Draft Giuliani movement in October 2005. The next year, Giuliani opened an exploratory committee and formally announced in February 2007 that he was actively seeking the presidential nomination of the Republican Party. At the onset of the campaign, Giuliani had held a significant lead in the nationwide polls by January 2007. His runner up in the polls, Senator John McCain, had his candidacy falter, and throughout 2007, Giuliani maintained his lead in both national polls and fundraising.

Rudy Giuliani was the Leader in all Polls, every week for many months in 2008, then his poll results crashed as the first State Primaries began. This bit of history is brought into focus, as the MEDIA is desperate to declare a winner presently with TRUMP or CARSON. Unfortunately the trend has broken, with this weeks polls, as CARSON is leading in three Polls for the IOWA straw poll. my personal opinion, neither Trump nor Carson will be the republican Nominee, as the primary voters will regain their senses and pick a more traditional candidate.

Political observers predicted that Giuliani’s position would fall, either due to Republican base voters discovering his liberal positions on certain social issues, his personality, management style or the entrance of former Senator Fred Thompson into the race. Giuliani did not campaign actively in the early voting states, hoping to simply survive in these states, and focused instead on the later, larger states. He campaigned in Florida throughout the primary season, hoping a win in the state’s primary on January 29, 2008, would give him enough momentum to win the primaries on Super Duper Tuesday (February 5), where he had also campaigned heavily. After finishing third in the Florida primary, Giuliani’s campaign indicated he would withdraw from the race. On January 29, 2008, Giuliani exited the race and endorsed the eventual Republican nominee John McCain.

Rudy Giuliani: said: β€œWe learn how to be leaders,” he said, explaining how lessons learned during his life helped him run New York City, especially dealing with the personal experience of having prostate cancer. β€œYou try to relate how to run a business, government or organization with how to deal with a crisis in life,” he said, engaging the audience as he walked around the large stage and emphasized his points with hand gestures. The first of his principles of good leadership was to have a set of beliefs. β€œToo many politicians make decisions based on opinion polls,” said the popular politician. β€œThey do that to reflect what you think.” He said that was the opposite of leadership. β€œThat’s not a leader,” he said. β€œThat’s an actor.”

Primary Politics and Polls: these articles “cut through the hype” and give to you a “Cliffs Notes” styled fast-facts-display with succinct analysis of the Candidates’ Polling Performance, including our editorial remarks. At the end of the current article is a divider labeled “Previously Reported,” thereunder is the content of last week’s article for easy reference and convenience.

πŸ”΄ Real Clear Politics publishes a listing of poll results on their website that lists all recent, respectable National and State Polls. The graphics below display the polls and computes an average of the 5 most recent Polls through October 18th, 2015.

πŸ”΄ National Polls vs. State Polling. It is believed at this mid-point in the Primary Campaigns, Local Polling may be less reliable by delivering sporadic results. Accordingly, we are focusing our attention onto the National Polling results. By mid-December, with less than 8 weeks until the first State Primaries in February: IOWA followed by NEW HAMPSHIRE, SOUTH CAROLINA and NEVADA, we will turn our focus onto Head-to-Head Polling results by State geography, and Nationally. Displayed below is a table showing each State’s Primary through June, 2016.

πŸ”΄ Republican Presidential Nomination Process. During February there will be 4 GOP State Primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. During March, 2016 “Super Tuesday” is THE day, held on March 1st, where 13 States hold their Primaries, followed four days later with another 13 State Primaries from March 5th through March 25. Therefore by April 1st, some 30 states, more than half the Country will have counted their Republican Delegates “pledged” to the 2016 Republican Convention held in Cleveland, Ohio.

πŸ”΄ A Republican Presidential Nominee becomes the Nominee once a candidate receives 1,144 delegate votes, at the Convention held on July 18 through 21st; Otherwise there will be a 2nd ballot, a 3rd ballot… This multiple-balloting is termed a “Brokered Convention” where the Nominee is “brokered.” The most recent brokered convention occurred in 1948 in effort to select one of three candidates, Thomas Dewey, Robert Taft or Harold Stassen. There were 3 separate ballots at the Republican National Convention to pick their nominee. Dewey finally won the Republican nomination; however, Dewey lost to Harry S Truman in the subsequent national election.

πŸ”΄ Real Clear Politics (RCP) displays and tabulates Polling Results periodically reported by the leading polling organizations, locally and nationally. Some of the most asked questions, when reviewing polling data are as follows. As Trump is the current Front-Runner, the comparisons are anchored to Trump’s performance.

(A) How is TRUMP performing in recent weeks
(B) How is TRUMP performing now in comparison several weeks ago
(C) How will TRUMP perform in the Polls in future weeks
(D) How will Candidates emerge as Trump’s Poll trend continues.

πŸ”΄ (A) How is TRUMP performing in recent weeks? Examining the polls during the past month, and in particular the recent two weeks, TRUMP’s polling results appear to be trending downward. Looking at the first 18 days of October polling, TRUMP’s Poll-data for the current 5 national polls conducted from 10/1 through 10/18 are 27%, 27%, 25%, 24%, and 17%, for an average of 24%. TRUMP’s polling results trend is trending downward. However, an 18 Day snapshot does not make a breakaway candidacy.

πŸ”΄ (B) How is TRUMP performing now in comparison several weeks ago? September 10th the ABC/Washington Post poll had TRUMP at 33% leading Carson by 13%. Apparently polling at or near 33% represents Trumps’ apparent polling Ceiling. It may be that Trump’s blustering attacks and insults are “taking a toll” on his popularity. Within 14 days, on September 24th Trump’s polling results came down to 21% according to the highly respected Bloomberg Poll. Note, a benefit of Real Clear Politic’s polling data presentation, they report each Poll’s results with a Link to the detail of each Poll, and RCP presents an AVERAGE of recent Polls. Looking at these averages from time to time gives a more “accurate” view of Trends.

πŸ”΄ (C) How will TRUMP perform in the Polls in future weeks? Trump is leading the next best Candidate by only 2.6% [average of current polls]. Just 10 days before, Trump was up 6% on average, as compared to the next best candidate, and for three weeks ago Trump was leading by over 13% on average. Trumps polling results in sum are: 13% to 6% to 2.6%, the polling trend is down during a 5 week period. One may predict that by the end of October, the Republican “Field” may be Polling more evenly balanced, with the other Candidates receiving some of Trump’s followers, as Trump continues to alienate primary voters with his blustering insults.

πŸ”΄ Trump blamed Bush 43 for the 9/11/01 Attack this week, [now he’s walking his gaff back] yet offers nothing on how Trump would have made the USA safer to that attack. Its amazing how easy it is to be a “Monday Morning Quarterback” when one looks back 14 years. Trump is Not a Genius, but he is a “Bomb Thrower.”

πŸ”΄ Trump makes periodic ABSURD remarks to gain attention, then the MEDIA takes the BAIT, puts him on the AIR to explain himself, thus giving Trump another several DAYS of Headlines, and the MEDIA gets a Ratings boost, a tactic that is totally unfair to the legitimate Candidates. Even FOX is intimidated with Trump as they “pussy foot” around with their questioning, followed by weak followup questioning, as Trump side-steps the Issue.

πŸ”΄ FOX Business Channel’s Charlie Gasparino (Twitter: @CGasparino) is the only FOX commentator that has “TRUMP’s Number.” In sum, Gasparino says [paraphrasing] that the Trump Candidacy a huge publicity stunt, advancing the Trump brand, where if Trump Wins… Fine. However, if Trump slips in the polls, he’ll quickly Run for the Hills, with lots of publicity.

πŸ”΄ (D) How will Candidates emerge as Trump’s Polling trend continues? There are two factors for Viable Candies to emerge. Firstly, as Trump continues to drop in the Polls, some of his followers will move to other candidates. Also, as some of the Candidates that are Polling under 2% for the 4 to 6 weeks drop out. Its amazing that these 5 candidates continue to remain in the “Race” with an extremely low likelihood of becoming the Republican Nominee.

πŸ”΄ The Six “Low-Tier” Candidates cannot currently raise MONEY to make a meaningful run, really should get out of the Race so that attention is more finely focused on the remaining 7 candidates. Apparently these “Political Egos” are interfering with their intellect. It is unbelievable that the 6 Low-Tier Candidates remain in the Race, against all reasonable odds, considering that they are now having extreme difficulty raising campaign contributions, not to mention that their Polling Results are terrible.

1⃣ Graham @ 0.2%
2⃣ Pataki @ 0.4%
3⃣ Jindan @ 0.6%
4⃣ Santorum @ 0.6%
5⃣ Christie @ 1.8%
6⃣ Paul @ 2.8%

πŸ”΄ Another Point to Contemplate. Weeks ago dating back to August, the Major Networks were covering Trump in an unprecedented fashion, likely because of his “celebrity” status, and ratings. There were occasions that the Networks would interrupt prime-time programming to cover Trump campaign events, with no commercial breaks for an hour or so, as if his campaign-event was a Presidential Press Conference… Recently, Trump’s “wall to wall” free coverage has settled down. Apparently, Trump’s “shine” is beginning to “tarnish” as folks no longer find his blustering insults interesting nor entertaining, and are turning to another Channel when Trump appears. Recently Trump has blamed George Bush 43, for the 9.11 Attack, how absurd is that, a Crazy statement for sure, but a very smart MEDIA Trap.

πŸ”΄ Examine Real Clear Politics summary of Polling Averages for the period of October 1st through October 18th. Firstly, Trump and Carson lead the group capturing 45% of the vote combined, both are outside the polls 3.5% typical margin-of-error.

πŸ”΄ ABC/Washington Post Poll. When examining this poll it surveyed 1001 individuals; however, the sampling was a “random national survey.” This means that there were no qualifications applied to those surveyed, as to whether the respondents were registered Republicans, Democrats, or Independents, Voted in the 2012 election, whether or not they intend to vote this election cycle.

πŸ”΄ Random Sample polling tends to reflect “name recognition” and current Media coverage, rather than “candidate policy views and preferences.” Therefore, random poll data is not as reliable in predicting actual primary voter trends. The Media oftentimes Reports the Headlines stats, but do not dig into the details and footnotes of the polling data. Scientific Polling takes into account this criteria, rendering a better snap-shot of voter preferences.

πŸ”΄ The Next 6 Viable Republican Candidates shows movement between each. RUBIO is showing a slow but steady climb in the polls, a few candidates are loosing support, and the bottom two, Kasich and Christie remain below 3% for too many weeks..

πŸ”΄ Rubio has steadily moved Up to 10.3% now in 3rd Place
πŸ”΄ Cruz is now polling at 8.0%, support down 20% from a peak of 10%
πŸ”΄ Bush is now polling at 8.0%, support is down 55% from a peak of 22%
πŸ”΄ Fiorina is now polling at 6.5%, support is down 60% from a peak of 15%
πŸ”΄ Kasich is now polling at 2.8% down from a peak of 6%
πŸ”΄ Christie is now polling at 2.0% down from a peak of 6%

πŸ”΄ Money Talks in Presidential Politics. Once Candidates have Difficulties raising Money, they Fade, its that Simple. The current 14-Candidate Republican Presidential Field, is destined to shrink SOON, as six Republican candidates are spending More Money than they Raised in the 3rd quarter of 2015. A Half-Dozen candidates had burn-rates of Over 100%, including Four of the initial Presidential Debaters, as well as Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. The nearly invisible former New York Governor George Pataki had the worst burn-rate at 226%, which means for every $1.00 raised, Pataki spent $2.26. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham and Rand Paul were not far behind, with burn rates of 188% and 181% respectively. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum also had burn rates over 100%, which means that they too will soon run out of Money, particularly with their current poor-polling results.

πŸ”΄ These 6 Republican candidates are finding that they do not have enough Supporters to fund the basic Operating Costs of their Campaigns. These cash-starved candidates are struggling just to cover their

(A) Travel Expenses
(B) Staff Salaries, and the
(C) Costs of keeping Campaign Offices open.

Jeb BUSH has been drastically cutting staff salaries, it was reported recently. Even this former front-runner, is also experiencing near negative cash-flows. The Governors of Texas and Wisconsin both exited the Presidential Primary race due to sudden and significant Negative Cash-Flows.

πŸ”΄ Negative Cash-Flow Candidacy have but Two Choices. Either Experience massive personal-debt, which mounts very fast, or drop-out Fast – Rick Perry and Scott Walker, exited the race FAST several weeks ago. At Scott Walker’s exit address to the Public, his loyal Staffers & Supporters, Walker encouraged the low-tier Candidates to “step aside and get out of the race” so that the primary voter’s attention may focus on the Viable Candidates.

πŸ”΄ Unfortunately Political Egos run Deep, as they hear only what they want to hear… oftentimes appearing to follow the pack with “Blind Ambition.” Apparently, its depressing for politicians to face sudden failure, as their messaging is not resonating with voters. When the messaging fails, the polls drop, and financing evaporates quickly.

πŸ”΄ Santorum Polled at 1% in the National Polls in 2012, however Won the IOWA Caucuses three months later. Santorum lagged in the polls for all of 2011 until he surged in the week before the Iowa caucuses, propelling him to a very narrow victory over Mitt Romney in the first State contest of the presidential primaries. Santorum’s presidential hopes received another boost when he surprisingly swept all three Primaries held on February 7, 2012, in Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado. On April 10, 2012, Santorum announced the suspension of his campaign. However the Bottom Line, although winning 11 State Primaries, he had no chance of becoming the 2012 Republican Nominee. Its not likely that he will gain much traction in this election cycle.

πŸ”΄ Political Elite Analysts are searching for a Narrative. Recall in the early weeks of the Republican Presidential Primary Campaigns, this election-cycle, 2016 is The Year of the Governors, those candidates that ran State governments. Well that narrative went down in Flames, as all the Republican governors are Polling into Single Digits, with many under 3%.

πŸ”΄ What’s the Media’s Next Political NARRATIVE… The Media said that 2016 is the “The Year of the Governors,” well this didn’t fit. Then the Media said its “The Year of the Outsiders” this too doesn’t appear to be working, as their polling numbers are faltering, except for Carson. However, even Carson peaked at 24% and now settling at 17%, and Trump peaked at 33% and now has settled to 23%. If these two front-runners polling drops further, other candidates will pick up support. We will be watching for this possibility.

Regardless, of how the Media and their Talking Heads attempt to label the Political Narrative, the Public is a lot smarter than they are given credit for… as new Top-Tier Candidates will emerge and come into fine focus in the next 6 weeks. Recently, Karl Rove reported, in the last two “Presidential Primary Cycles, 2012, and 2008,” front-runner status changed 5 times or more, before the February State primaries. If 2016 functions similarly to prior campaigns we may have 2 or 3 new “Front Runners.”

πŸ”΄ The Political Elite Talking Heads and the Networks have changed their Narrative to this is The Year of the Outsiders, in attempt to explain the recent change of the polling results. It seems that this “outsider narrative” is facing some erosion too, as Carlie Fiorina, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush, Huckabee’s polling are cratering too. The only remaining “Outsider” who is only a 5 year Senator from Florida, Marco RUBIO is steadily climbing in the Polls.

πŸ”΄ CARSON and TRUMP, what’s in their Future, with their Polling Results. IMHO, spoken as a non-political scientist, Carson and Trump’s polling is likely to settle into the mid-teen percentages in the next few weeks, as their “sparkle and celebrity” wears-off. During these next 4 weeks all the candidates will be faced with answering questions about Policy and Solutions, which requires a change in focus from Problem Blustering to Viable Solutions.

πŸ”΄ The Question Remains… In the quiet of the day, Firstly, who do you really think can be the next Republican President, and Secondly, who will be the most Viable Candidate to run against the Democratic Party’s candidate. It has been reported by insiders of the Hilary Campaign, that they fear RUBIO the most, if he emerges as THE candidate, for her to face. A Trump vs Hiliary debate could garner sympathy as he attacks her… Imagine a Rubio vs Hiliary Debate, with his surgical slicing and dicing of her rhetoric, spoken from a conservative perspective.

πŸ”΄ Four weeks ago, many were predicting the demise of Donald Trump. Today, his grip on the GOP nominating contest seems as strong as ever. However, with an apparent ceiling of about 25%. Twenty-One of the USA TODAY 30 Political Experts that are surveyed each week, gave first-place marks to Trump this week, his highest total since Week 3 of the Power Rankings survey. Trump’s candidacy appears to be making the transition from an upstart spectacle to a real presidential campaign. Part of Trump’s return to dominance is that his challengers keep losing traction. Carly Fiorina took over first place in the GOP Power Rankings after the second Republican debate, but she has quickly faded. β€œFiorina failed to build on debate success,” said Carl Leubsdorf of The Dallas Morning News. She had 13 first-place votes from our panel in Week 4. This week, she had none.

πŸ”΄ Marco Rubio received 4 first-place votes and Ben Carson received 3 first-place votes, as both remain in the hunt. Rubio was not helped by questions by the media about exactly how much money he raised in this third quarter Election’s Commission Filing. This is a ridiculous issue as all Candidate’s Fund Raising activities and expenditures are in the Public Record. Candidates at the bottom of the GOP rankings have largely remained in place for two months, raising questions about how long they can last. β€œThe race is settling into a top tier, and the rest are struggling for campaign dollars,” said Henry Barbour. β€œThe field could thin after the Oct 28 and Nov. 10 debates. Cash flow is becoming a Huge issue for many campaigns.” The immediately below will take you directly to USA TODAY’s GOP Power Ranking. Each Week USA TODAY updates their rankings, therefore for Next Week ‘s GOP Power Ranking go to: http://onpolitics.usatoday.com and click onto the Power Ranking tab for the current week’s results and dialog.

http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/10/20/republican-power-rankings-trump/

πŸ”΄ RUBIO vs TRUMP β€’ Rubio Wins in Two Man Race: 50% to 43% β€’ Presidential Primary Race β€’ 2015 β€’ October 6th πŸ”΄

πŸ”΅ Head-to-Head Match-ups β€’ TWO Candidate match-ups β€’ This is the Polling statistic that has meaning. With 15 currently in the Republican primary “Race,” trying to make any sense of the Polling Percentages of each is a “Fools Errand.” However, lets limit the Polling Question in this way, “Vote for One of these Two Candidates.”

πŸ”΅ Public Policy Polling (PPP), conducts very comprehensive polls. In their current polling data, PPP asked about preferences for all the candidates in the group, AND a separate section comparing TWO man races, to see how various candidates matchup against the “Front Runner” in the polls, to see how Trump performs against several Republican competitors.

πŸ”΅ It would not be practical for PPP to ask how each of the Top 6 candidates would matchup against each other as there would be over 200 possible combinations. The Poller and the Voter would be on the Polling Questionnaire for hours.

πŸ”΅ PPP has chosen to matchup the current Front-Runner against 3 or 4 of the other “viable” Candidates. By matching up several primary candidates that have been showing recent strength, or that have been in the Media with newsworthy events, will give the public and the campaign strategists signals if the Candidate’s “Messaging” is effective or not. Below are some interesting results.

πŸ”΅ RUBIO vs TRUMP, Rubio Wins in a Two Man Race: 50% to 43%
πŸ”΅ TRUMP vs BUSH, Trump Wins in a Two Man Race: 56% to 36

πŸ”΅ Public Policy Polling, the PPP Polls, below is the LINK to see their comprehensive 96 page report dated October 6, 2015. A Graphic is displayed below, which represents a single-page showing some interesting unreported data, that the Network NEWS has not Reported. The RUBIO head-to-head results is likely why Trump has been recently “pounding Rubio” every time Trump gets On Camera. PPP discovered that for the TWO Man races polled, Trump only wins against BUSH. However, Trump also looses against the other top three Republican contenders, Rubio, Carson and Fiorina. To view the full report go to this link: (PPP Link: http://goo.gl/0bA3ue)

πŸ”΄ Polling Results are assembled and evaluated, periodically (every 7 to 10 days) and editorialized from our “non-pollster” perspective. These reports show the most current Polling Results. Each Poll’s percentages are totaled and presented as an average corresponding to each candidate, displayed at the pop of the table.

πŸ”΄ TRUMP scores the highest percentage with 22% preference for his candidacy, using at the 3 most current Polls conducted. An interesting point, Trump’s polling results appear to be contracting or wobbling from 17% to the mid-twenties. Several weeks ago Trump was polling over 32%, where his current average polling stats average 22%. There is much debate from paid Political Analysts regarding Trump’s polling results. Many say, Trump’s “bullying, blustering, and insulting” remarks coupled with little Policy-speak, Trump’s “polling popularity” may have reached a ceiling. Trump may have difficulty in garnering polling results over current levels. Since we seem to be entering the “Policy Phase” of this primary season, Trump will have to deliver substantive responses for his positions; if not, his Polling results may drop further.

πŸ”΄ http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2015/10/06/republican-power-rankings-week-6-trump-fiorina-rubio-carson/

πŸ”΄ RUBIO has been slowly but steadily Climbing to 11% in the Polling average. Of course the higher a candidate climbs in the Polls, the MEDIA attention becomes more focused onto the Candidate. In our opinion, this focus will benefit Rubio, as he has an excellent command of the important topics discussed, and delivers sincere, unscripted, energetic responses. Rubio’s robust and competent responses should garner confidence in his candidacy and delivery higher polling results.

πŸ”΄ There are 8 candidates polling over 3%, plus 7 candidates polling under 3%. For the 7 candidates polling under 3%, 4 candidates are polling under 1%; Accordingly, there remains too many candidates for the statistics to be meaningful. Until the number of candidates drops to 4 or 5 viable candidates, the pool non-Trump polling remains split into too many buckets. Simple math: Let’s take the non-Trump POOL of candidates (100% less Trump’s 22% = 78%), then divide 78% equally by 11 (all the other candidates over 1%) equates to 7.8% each.

πŸ”΄ Polling Results β€’ Another Perspective View. Polling Organizations like PPP, ask many questions to qualify each potential Voter for the poll. For example, if the Poll assignment is an opinion-poll for Registered Republicans, the Poller will disqualify, non-registered voters and those leaning democratic. They also ask questions such as “If you were Voting Today which Candidate is your First Pick.”

πŸ”΄ Pollers may also ask “If you were Voting Today which Candidate is your Second Pick.” When looking at the 2nd Choice Picks by those being Polled, TRUMP does not perform to the level of his 1st Pick polling. RUBIO, Fiorina, Carson, Cruz all Poll better for 2nd Choice than does TRUMP. One may deduce, Trump has a “firm following” of 22%, but Trump is not polling well for the other 78% of the folks, that didn’t pick Trump as their 1st Pick.

πŸ”΄ CARSON and FIORINA are grouped together as their Polling results appear to have peaked with results wavering or showing signs of “steady” decline. Notice that with each new Poll Fiorina’s results are declining several points. Carson’s polling results are fluctuating up and down. After four subsequent weeks of polling results, these trends will develop further.

πŸ”΄ JEB BUSH is displaying steady Declines, with most of the Polling. Apparently, there are a number of Candidates in this political cycle that are out-performing Bush. These campaigns are lengthly, where early results are not necessarily definitive. However, as the saying goes…

πŸ”΅ You don’t get a Second chance at a First impression.

πŸ”΄ National Polls || State Polling. It is believed at this early point in the Campaigns, the Local Polling is less reliable delivering sporadic results. Therefore we will be focusing our attention onto the National Polling. Mid-December, with less than 8 weeks until the first State Primary, IOWA then NEW HAMPSHIRE, we will focus on Head-to-Head Polling results by State geography.

πŸ”΄ Real Clear Politics publishes comprehensive polling results onto their website that lists all recent National and State Polling results. The graphic below displays the polls through October 4th, 2015.

πŸ”΄ Real Clear Politics graphical presentation of the recent National Polls is displayed below. Notice that this chart has been trimmed to show only the TOP 3 Presidential Candidates. However, to see their entire panel of candidates click onto this Link: http://goo.gl/0OWZge

πŸ”΄ IBD/TIPP Poll has an established proven track-record for Best Polling Accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate.New York Times has also concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 Polling Organizations for the three weeks immediately preceding the 2012 elections.

πŸ”΅ Voting Matters, Primary Voting Matters, Primary Campaigns Matter

πŸ”΅ Public Policy Polling, the PPP Polls, below is the LINK to see the entire report. A Graphic is also displayed below, which represents a single-page showing some interesting unreported data, that the Networks have not mentioned.

πŸ”΅ Head-to-Head Match-ups, TWO Candidate match-ups, namely Vote for One of these Two Candidates: TRUMP vs BUSH, Trump Wins 56% to 36%; for TRUMP vs RUBIO, Rubio wins 50% to 43%. Take a look at the Page Below, Questions Q18, Q19, Q20, Q21.

πŸ”΅ To view the entire report go to this link
β€’ PPP Report’s Link to the 10/6/2015 Poll: http://goo.gl/0bA3ue
β€’ PPP Link to main Polling site: http://www.PublicPolicyPolling.com/main/polls/

Please note that we will begin commenting on the Democratic Primary Campaigns, commencing mid-October with their 1st Democratic Primary Presidential Debate.

β˜…β˜… Primary Campaigns β˜… The 3 Phase Plan β˜…β˜…

πŸ”΄ Primary Campaign Phases, 3-Phases, the 3P’s of Primary Campaigns. Professional Political Consultants say that primary campaigns have three basic phases, the PPP of primary politics.

πŸ”΄ Personality Phase, Policy Phase, Presidential Phase; Each Phase has a duration of roughly 10 weeks, and transitions to the next phase are based on Campaign Strategies, Presidential Debates, Current Events, and Media demands.

πŸ”΄ Personality Phase, the Policy Phase and the Presidential Phase. As a very Politically Interested citizen, I’m certainly not an expert in political science. However, here’s my take on what’s going on this political season. As polling results are published we will attempt to give our “man on the street” interpretation and possible reasoning for the outcomes, leading for the next series of polls.

πŸ”΄ Professionals in the Political arena say that the lead for the Candidates will change 5 or 6 times before we get into the first State Primaries starting in February, 2016.

πŸ”΄ Personality Phase. The 1st Phase of Political Campaigns, the first time-traunch, is considered the “Personality Phase.” In this 1st Phase the candidates are introducing themselves (or re-introducing themselves) to the political primary audience of the respective political parties, even though the candidates may already be generally known; however, these Presidential hopefuls have now launched their candidacy, and the folks are beginning to take notice. In this 1st Phase, the candidates are focusing on having the public get to know each other, as presidential candidates, in effort to increase their “likability” and decrease their “negatives.” With this current 2015 Primary season, the “Personality Phase” has been running strong for about 10-12 weeks.

πŸ”΄ Policy Phase. The 2nd Phase of Primary Campaigns. Now that the Personality Phase is coming to an end (hopefully), the Candidates eventually (now) have to turn their attention to Policy Issues that face the Nation domestically (Economy, Jobs, Boarder Security, Health Care, plus other domestic issues) and externally (World affairs, National Security, Mid-East, National Defense, and other global concerns).

πŸ”΄ CNN hosted 2nd Presidential Debate. You may have noticed during the 2nd Presidential Debate hosted by CNN, the moderators focused the second-half of the debate to National Security issues, War, Peace, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Israel, Libya, North Africa… It was interesting that TRUMP was very quiet (surprisingly, 30+ minutes of silence) during the National Security questioning. Trump apparently has not taken the time to become adequately briefed in world affairs. Donald admits “… I get most of my information about World Affairs from News Reports.”

πŸ”΄ RUBIO was Actively Participating with the National Security questioning in the CNN Debate, as he is very knowledgable about matters relating to our National Security and the threats that face the Nation. In stark contrast to Trump, RUBIO is currently a Sitting Member of two very important Senate Select Committees, the Foreign Relations Committee and the Intelligence Committee. This Issues-based 2nd Phase will likely take the Campaigns through the end of November, 2015. Link to the Senate Select Committees: http://goo.gl/bVqjyT. It will be interesting to hear the Candidates articulate their Policy views during this 2nd Phase of the Campaigns. The 2nd Phase separates the Confident Policy Leaders from the Blusters and the Clueless, and the Talkers from the Doers.

πŸ”΄ The Presidential Phase, the 3rd Phase of the Political Campaign. Can the Voters actually visualize this Candidate as The President of the United States. This 3rd Phase of Primary Campaigns is an extremely important period of time. This is the time that Primary Voters are digesting the impressions obtained from their “favorite presidential candidates” assimilated from the previous two phases of the campaigns. Accordingly, the Candidates are drawing together their Personality and Policy strengths using succinct messaging at News Interviews and as displayed by there Paid Advertising. Hopefully, the number of viable candidates will reduce from 16 to 6 or less. Voters are competent as a Group.

Voters can Pick the Best from the Rest.

πŸ”΄ Polling Results delivers Important Indicators for Campaigns, as it provides signals to the Campaigns whether or not their “messaging” is effective. Polling also provides signals to the political Contributors, as to whether (or not) to (continue) support their candidate. It is not believable that all or most Contributors require some form a “quid pro quo” from their Candidate in exchange for their financial support. In making political contributions with Money (and/or Effort) to Campaigns, whether for Democrats or Republicans, from JF Kennedy, Reagan, Bush, to Obama, most expected nothing in return. Contributions are made because it is believed the Candidate most closely paralleled our beliefs for the important matters. TRUMP touts his political canard, that he is beholden to no one, as he’s self financing his campaign. Baloney.

πŸ”΄ IBD/TIPP latest October 1st, 2015 POLL shows TRUMP in 2nd, which is 7% behind Ben Carson, outside the Β±5% MOE, margin of error. Donald Trump has continuously boasted that he’s “leading every poll and in most cases with BIG margins. “Not the case anymore, Donald!

πŸ”΄ Nationwide IBD/TIPP October 1st survey found that 24% of Republican Primary Voters are backing Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump. Marco Rubio came in 3rd with 11%. RUBIO’s polling results are particularly good news, as he has been steadily climbing in recent polling, with reported excellent performances in the last 2 Presidential Debates, the 1st Debate moderated by FOX, and the 2nd moderated by CNN.

πŸ”΄ Real Clear Politics publishes comprehensive polling results onto their website (http://goo.gl/0OWZge) that lists all recent National and State Polling results. The graphic below displays the polls through October 5th, 2015.

πŸ”΄ Real Clear Politics graphical presentation of the recent National Polls is displayed below. Notice that this chart has been trimmed to show only the TOP 7 Presidential Candidates. However, to see their entire panel of candidates click onto this Link: http://goo.gl/0OWZge

πŸ”΄ Rubio is Polling Nationally in 3rd place at 11%, and Carly Fiorina 4th place at 9%. Jeb Bush, months ago was considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked in 5th place with only 8% support. Those who say they remain “Undecided” rests at 9%. As time progresses, the Undecideds will decrease, and the Leaders will be more defined as the unpopular Candidates drop out of contention.

πŸ”΄ With the current Crowded Field of Republican Presidential hopefuls, it is difficult for candidates to mount large statistical leads. However, Trump apparently has accumulated true supporters plus the “anti-establishment” crowd which is currently Shrinking with Time.

πŸ”΄ IBD/TIPP Poll has an established proven track-record for Best Polling Accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate.New York Times has also concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 Polling Organizations for the three weeks immediately preceding the 2012 elections.

πŸ”΄ Rubio is among the Highest Group for the Combination of 1st Choice plus 2nd Choice. An interesting Read of the Polling Results. One measure of the polling data is to look deeper into the polling results, to see which Candidates have been selected 1st Choice Pick, and which candidate is their 2nd Choice. If you Add the Candidate’s 1st choice picks with their 2nd Choice picks, TRUMP falls to deeply into the Crowd, as few select Trump as their 2nd choice candidate.

πŸ”΄ IBD/TIPP’s current scientific poll of October 1st, 2015 POLL, conducted for the period from Sept. 26 to Oct. 1, included 377 registered voters who are Republican or Registered Independents, who lean toward the Republican Party, with a margin of error of Β±5% points, also referred to as a MOE of Β±5%.

πŸ”΄ Understanding Polling Results, and using a MOE of Β±5%. Since Carly Fiorina is currently at 9% and Jeb Bush is polling at 8%, they are within the Β±5% MOE and are considered to be “Statistically Tied” although the Networks hardly ever mention who are statistically tied. Further since, Carson is 7% higher than Trump, Carson is clearly higher in the Polls because their polling results differ by an amount greater than the Poll’s declared MOE of Β±5%.

πŸ”΄ Polling Organizations declare their poll’s margin of error, along with the Polling Data. Generally speaking, the greater the number of participants in the polling data, the lower the margin of error. The scrutiny applied to selecting the participants, their geography, and previous voting trends, help to reduce the margin of error.

πŸ”΄ Understanding and Interpreting Polling Data is a very complex topic. True scientific polling requires careful selection of the participants, their voting experience, age grouping, geography, political preferences, etc. This Link provides to you the methodology and other matters regarding PEW Research Polling. http://goo.gl/AMR2yz

πŸ”΄ Has TRUMP Peaked? Other polls show Trump’s support slipping in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of six national polls shows him falling 7.2% from 30.5% to 23.3% during the last half of September. That average does not include the IBD/TIPP findings, which would bring the figures down a bit further.

πŸ”΄ “Things appear to be catching up with Trump on multiple fronts,” said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts IBD’s monthly poll. “In addition to facing increasing attacks from other candidates, Trump’s boycott of Fox News may have set him back,” Mayur said, noting that the poll was being conducted during Trump’s self-imposed hiatus. Think about all the Free-Press FOX News was unfairly giving TRUMP.

πŸ”΄ TRUMP was asked on CNBC recently about Donald’s slipping poll numbers… Trump said that “if I fell behind badly, and the media stopped inviting me to appear… I would certainly get out.” Carson’s gain comes after his controversial remarks on “Meet the Press” that he couldn’t support a Muslim for president. Rubio’s third-place standing shows he has gained considerable ground since the second GOP debate. But Fiorina, who was widely seen as having won the CNN debate, has been unable to capitalize on the media’s view of the Debate with Republican Primary Voters.

πŸ”΄ Marco Rubio has overtaken Donald Trump and secured second place for the first time in USA TODAY’s weekly GOP Power Rankings. Each week ask about 30 political experts from around the country who they think is the strongest candidate in the Republican field. Trump dominated in the first weeks of our survey. But last week, after a strong debate performance, Carly Fiorina knocked Trump from first place,

πŸ”΄ USA TODAY’s weekly GOP Power Rankings. Each week USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings asks 30 Political Experts from around the Country who these 30 Experts think is the strongest candidate in the Republican field. Trump dominated First Place for the first 3 weeks of their surveys.

πŸ”΄ This week RUBIO knocked out TRUMP out of Donald’s second place seat, based in part on RUBIO’s good post-debate performances with the Media and his Campaigning, and the fading of several other candidates. However, in the previous week (week 4) after a strong CNN debate performance, Carly Fiorina knocked Trump from first place held (Week 3). Click onto this Link to see the Current Week’s Results, as each Week this USA TODAY’s weekly GOP Power Rankings is updated. http://goo.gl/DHl1n6

πŸ”΄ USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings β€’ Updated Weekly http://goo.gl/DHl1n6



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