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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Dr. Allen J. Lichtman’s 13 Keys to Predict The Winner to the White House πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 100% Accurate for 32 Years of Presidential Elections πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ

September 27, 2016

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The 13 Keys to The White House. These Keys are statements that favor the re-election of the Incumbent Party, therefore the greater the number of True Statements, the better for the Incumbent Party.

πŸ‡±πŸ‡· If 8 or more statements are True, the Incumbent Party is Predicted to Win; conversely,

πŸ‡±πŸ‡· If 6 or more statements are False, the Challenging Party is Predicted to Win.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Allen J Licthman’s 13 Keys to the White House. These Keys establish the likelihood for the Party in Power to retain the White House, or Not. This method is a historically based prediction system. Lichtman derived the system by examining 120 years of American Presidential Elections, dating from 1860 to 1980. Licthman has since used his system to correctly predict the outcomes of all of the recent eight American Presidential Elections from 1984 through 2012.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Licthman’s predictions are based on 13 Key Statements that are structured as 13 True or False questions. The results involve simply tallying the number of True or False responses: an answer of “True” always favors the ReElection of the incumbent party holding the White House. This is the case of the 2016 Election, as Democrats are the incumbent party.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Lets answer these thirteen questions and Score the Prediction for the 2016 presidential Election. The responses will be shown as either {False} or {True}


1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. {False} ➑️ {Democrats lost Many US House of Rep Seats}

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. {True}

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. {False} ➑️ {Hillary Clinton is not a sitting president}

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign, polling over 5%. {False} ➑️ {Johnson polling at 10%}

5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. {True}

6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. {False} ➑️ {Economic growth decreased}

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. {False} ➑️ {ObamaCare, major unpopular change}

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. {True}

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. {True}

10. Foreign/Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. {False} ➑️ {Iraq, Iran, Libya, ISIS all in Crisis}

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. {False} ➑️ {Iraq, Iran, Libya, ISIS all in Crisis}

12. Incumbent Party Candidate Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. {False} ➑️ {Clinton, Low Trustworthy & Honesty}

13. Challenger Party Candidate Charisma: The challenging party candidate is Not Charismatic or a national hero. {True}


πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Answering the thirteen questions above, readers may Score which direction this Election may take. There are 6 {True} statements and there are 7 {False} statements, therefore according to Dr. Licthman’s 13 Keys to the White House, the Election Prediction is:

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Challenging Party is Predicted to WIN the White House.


πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ The 13 Keys are phrased to reflect the theory that Elections are primarily Judgments on the Performance of the Party holding the Power in the White House. The Test:

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ If 8 or More statements are True, the Party in Power gets 4 More Years.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ If 6 or more of the 13 keys are Factually FALSE β€” going against the Party in Power, the Incumbent Party will Lose the White House

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